outperform, their price target goes from 23 all the way to 33, they say the monetization of mobile is going to give them the time and the chance to address some longer term challenges. that does it for here on "squawk on the street" as we hit noon, time to go back to headquarters, scott wapner and the "fast money" halftime. four hours to go until the close and here's where we stand on the street at this hour. you'll see a lot of red arrows on the board today, off the lowest levels of the day, the dow is down nearly 90 points, here's what we're following on halftime. blanket coverage, citi assigns three analysts to cover apple. what does it say about the most valuable company on earth? has the momentum for a deal faded? and are the markets in for a reality check? but first, our top story touting tech.

facebook, yahoo, rimm all upgraded today. but should you be buying the hype on some of the most beaten down names on the street? let's get right to it with joe terranova, stephanie link, and simon baker. and how about it, you look at facebook today up 8% off this upgrade. >> that's a notable upgrade simply because this analyst was probably one of the more cautious on the ipo back in may. but i think what all three of these names we mentioned, rimm, yahoo, and facebook have in common. the way they've been acting in this recent rally is that all of them. there's really no fundamental change. there's just been this massive shift in sentiment. and sometimes that's all you need. sometimes there's just no one left to sell and all of a sudden people decide to focus on the silver lining. that's great, it can go on for a long time. but i don't think anyone should say, hey, there's been this huge change fundamentally. all of this is based on the expectation that things will improve. >> at least facebook's most recent earnings report was pretty good, right? beat the street -- >> weeks ago. what this is about is the analysts saying, look, the

opportunity in mobile is way bigger than most people are counting on. but that's a sentiment that's been out there. it's just now people are choosing to decide, hey, let's focus on the mobile opportunity, let's not focus on all of the negatives and let's get positive. >> we've got herb greenberg here, as well going through these upgrades. what do you make of them? >> i think these are all calls timed to a stock price for the most part. especially with facebook, especially with rimm where they can come out and say almost anything on these names and juice a stock. and what i love about the report. and this report is a very bold call, very serious report. but it's point number four. facebook remains a risky investment depending on the long-term and yet unproven success of social advertising. so he really is putting this out here as a speculative play, but he knows he can make a good name for himself with it, i think, over time. and look, long-term, maybe he's right. it's classically a trader's play. i think on the rimm thing, the interesting part of this was two analysts.

analysts coming out and saying it's a great buy. then today, morgan stanley comes out saying, oh, we believe the stock remains uninvestable for the near term. >> joe, which one stands out to you today. >> first of all, as a trader, you identify all of these names as what i call box trades. and these are all names that have been placed in the penalty box by the investment community. who gets out first, and i think clearly when you look at 2013, you look at yahoo, look at a little bit of a change in the shifting momentum in the core business capital allegation strategy. that's the name that you focus on. yahoo rimm -- >> certainly in the sentiment -- since meyer was named as ceo. >> again, they've spent so much time being punished by the street. now, you extrapolate that, you look at rimm, i think rimm is nothing more than a short interest squeeze and that's a trade. but who else looks like a yahoo?

and you go to a name like dell. when you look at the characteristics in cash, in what money managers will look at these names and try to do. take dell, that's your yahoo in 2013. >> which call stands out to you? which stock are you buying as a result? >> i think all three are very interesting, but i think facebook for an investment right here makes a lot of sense. and i actually would just take the different side in terms of the fundamentals. i think then, josh, i think things have changed for the company. i think right out of the gate after that ipo'ed the stock, that was horrible -- i want to take you down to lower manhattan as we watch matthew martoma leaving the courthouse, the accused insider trader. we're trying to get these pictures coming in. you just saw a flash of matthew

martoma leaving the courthouse in lower manhattan, accused of pulling off the biggest insider trading scheme in u.s. history. we'll get back to that as soon as we get those pictures in. but obviously we're having a little bit of difficulty doing that. stephanie link, didn't mean to interrupt you. finish your thought. >> no problem. i was just saying the third quarter was much better than the second quarter. and if you look at revenues and advertising and look at payments, they all grew double digits and beat expectations. if you look at mobile ad revenues coming out of the third quarter that are revenue run rate of $1 billion. that legitimatizes the mobile monetization situation, which was the key issue for everybody in this ipo. stocks trading at about 35 times forward estimates, growing earnings about 37%. i think the valuation is attractive particularly given the stock has come down quite a bit. >> you bring up an interesting point. and herb, you called it great for a trade. stephanie link said a good investment. why only good for a trade? >> well, we don't know what the long-term is here. i think she's making the bet

that a good investor would make that they believe long-term there's something there. i'm looking at the wording of the report. i'm looking at the timing. again, look, this analyst i could argue against myself and say he made the right time to come in and actually make his recommendation because it's, you know, stock's already beaten down. >> facebook has to be an investment from a psychological standpoint, doesn't it? >> i'm not a trader, i don't know -- >> scott -- >> can i point out? >> go ahead. >> i think you and scott are making good points, but this is really an issue of what the time frame is as an investor. if you're a short-term trader, there's an argument to be made that there's no one left to sell facebook anymore and so more reports like this will continue to move the stock up from a momentum standpoint. you don't have to care about whether or not alliance is right about what they'll be able to accomplish. >> let me get simon baker in here, as well. what are your thoughts? >> you've got to look at the technicals too. where the stock's been trading. stock's up big today.

and a lot of resistance. we can talk about the fundamentals on facebook, but looking technically, a little bit careful getting high on it. you're talking about yahoo, absolutely the fundamentals look good. the sentiments change pretty quickly. but this is a three-year turn around story. and it's only the beginning of the story. i'd be careful getting into yahoo. you've got to get in the technicals. >> i disagree with everyone. looking at what the potential upside is. i think when you look at these names, the first question to ask yourself, how much money can i lose? and it goes back to yahoo. i think that's where the bottom, the downside risk has been defined. to me there's unlimited downside risk in rimm. the model might be going away. and facebook, there is risk if they're not able to monetize the mobile. >> as herb pointed out -- >> that's where you're incurring the most risk. >> two different models. >> i look at yahoo and the report. what does the analyst key in on? really keying in on buybacks. the analyst -- for me as a guy sitting on the sidelines

watching it i say, hmm, he's pulling out all the stops. >> let's take rimm individually and kick that around. i think over the past month research in motion has absolutely blown away apple in terms of stock performance. i'm not suggesting -- you know what i'm not suggesting here. however, why not buy research in motion on the prospects -- >> let me explain what's happening with rimm. the stock is up 65% in the last 90 days, apple is down 13%. it's not because rimm got that much better and apple got that much worse. there were no sellers left at $6, $7 a share number one. and number two, you've got analysts at jeffries saying, okay, we all know the negatives. if rim could recapture, get back 20% of the mobile market, they were north of 40%, now they're 10%, that would be a $40 stock price -- >> but you need to make money on hardware and money on services and -- >> i understand, i'm talking

about potential. i'm not talking about what's going to happen. that's why the stock is moving. >> if you look at the fundamentals, though, the reason the stock is working because you're buying it ahead of the blackberry 10 coming out january 30th. >> correct. >> but, you know, you're not going to get this product until march, and in the meantime, you've got arpu declining quickly. i think it's a lot harder of a case to make for rimm than it is for facebook or yahoo. >> all it is is sentiment shift and i agree. >> i'd get out and run as far away -- >> i don't know why we're not even questioning just the upgrade itself. right after a 60-plus percent gain over three months to upgrade it now is kind of, you know, behind the curve. you missed the boat a little bit, didn't you? >> i think it's into the launch, though, scott. >> but, scott, to your point, if you are chasing beta, the najarians have done a great job of pointing this out. exactly what you said. you have seen rimm outperform apple. you've also seen nokia outperform apple. but are you chasing beta in the

near term or are you looking longer term for a true investment? and if that's the case, that's where rimm, to me, falls short. >> i'm going to go -- >> i think joe -- here's the bottom line -- >> let me interrupt you for a second. i apologize. i want to go back down to lower manhattan outside that courthouse to bertha coombs who has been covering the martoma case down there. >> matthew martoma left with his attorney moments ago. this morning, essentially, a procedural hearing to formally set bail at $5 million. you'll have to put up 2 million in cash and or property. it's a personal recognizance bond. he has to have three financially responsible signatories. as suspected, surrendering his passport. and fair leeway in terms of travel, can remain in the new york/new jersey area. and his primary residence down in boca raton, florida. he's allowed to travel to florida, as well. preliminary hearing set for

december 26th. most likely that will go until the new year. but at this point, there's just a formal complaint and he has been charged. he has not been formally indicted if that indictment is handed down in the interim, then he would be back in the court. in the complaint it says that mr. martoma as a portfolio manager for cr intrinsic, a unit of sec capital. he had inside information from one of the key researchers in that trial who is now listed as a cooperating witness for the prosecution. not named and yet inferred in that complaint is steve cohen who is the head of s.a.c. capital. according to the complaint, the owner of the hedge fund was aware of these trades. and a lot of people feel that this is a key development in this case. back to you. >> all right, bertha, thanks so much, bertha coombs for us down

in lower manhattan. again the significance. this is the first time we're seeing the man accused by the feds of pulling off the biggest insider trading scheme in u.s. history. herb, thanks to you, as well. we'll see you again soon. and when "halftime" comes back. from black friday to the cyber monday rush, we're on the hunt for new retail stock plays and a top portfolio manager is going to tell you what should be on your shopping list. and later, citi initiates coverage on america's favorite stock, apple with three separate analysts. they'll all join us exclusively to dissect the tech giant.

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after hitting the malls to kick off the holiday shopping season on black friday, millions more are buying from their computer screens today. our courtney reagan has an update on how cyber monday looks thus far. and it's not like they weren't spending a lot on black friday online either. >> i know, isn't that the truth? the black friday weekend was a success. like you mentioned, had nearly half of all shoppers at least

scoured the web on friday. more than $1 billion was spent online on that day. and so far on this cyber monday, shoppers are still going strong. take a look at this. ibm sars so far online sales up 20.8% compared to last year. consumers appear to have been shopping on the way to work. 24% shopping on mobile devices at 10:00 a.m., now 23% as they've gotten to work. iphone driving more retail shopping than any other device with more than 9% of traffic. 12% of those folks using the devices to make a purchase down from slightly earlier in the morning. traffic expected to spike around now and around the next couple of hours around lunch. electronics are leading the way. the top five google shopping queries in the u.s. include laptop, nexus 7, amazon, ebay and walmart come in at number nine and ten. two searches spiked over the last 24 hours.

"assassins creed 3." and it's o only going to go up from here. scott? >> thanks so much. what do you make of the fact we can throw up a number of different retailers today and you're going to see retailers are getting killed. >> all of those online shopping figures are as a result of people shopping for discounts online. they're not benefitting the stores, cyber monday's actually not a real thing because they had the discounts up online on thursday night and friday morning. the whole sector that's the s&p retail, that's locked in the down trend since the first week of september. and quite frankly, it's just not a positive thing. i don't know why anyone would want to speculate in this group as a whole. you've got to be really specific if you want to play retail. >> you were specific last week on tjx. >> i was, and got out of half the position today. the stock should be much higher given that tjx has done relatively well here in the last couple of days. we're extending hours, offering more discounts, they're selling

smartphones, tablets, they're selling tvs. this plays right into the qualcomm trade. and i think also this is favorable for corning, glw, if tvs are selling, you're getting corning here at a very discounted price. >> i want to get your thoughts on tjx here, as well. i know you've talked about it on the show. you're surprised it's down on a day like this? >> no, i think a lot of the reason why retail is down today because it was up 1.8% on friday and up 4.8% all of last week. it did outperform the broader averages. you probably priced in the good news last week. and i think you can pick your spots. you look at a t.j., we talked about walmart, they're taking market share. costco is a winner. but i don't think you need to buy today. let the dust settle, because the stocks have had a nice run. let's see a pullback and pick your spots. our next guest might as well

be called retail road warrior. he spent much of the holiday weekend in his car hitting store after store to get a good read on sales. he also runs a fidelity fund up 15% this year. peter joins us live. good to see you. >> thanks for having me today, scott. >> you went around massachusetts, three different malls, three different shopping centers, went multiple times. what did you find? >> i sure did. saw a lot of good things this weekend. consumers spending on discretionary items. i saw consumers spending on housing-related things like small appliances. saw consumers spending on themselves, which i think was a great sign. in general, i think traffic was probably a little weaker, but i think i chalk that up to longer hours over the weekend. weekend long deals and, of course, the growth of e commerce. but in general, i'm optimistic on the potential of retail sales this holiday season. >> why are we seeing some of these stocks peel back today. it's one of the weakest sectors in the market, retail is. >> you know, i'm not too surprised, but i really don't measure it on a shorter term

basis. black friday's over, everybody's worried now maybe there'll be a lull between now and christmas. again, i think there are a number of reasons to be optimistic. housing getting better, unemployment stabilizing, you know, you have inventories, are in really good shape exiting the third quarter. you also have back to school, that bodes well for the holiday season. and you also have two extra days between thanksgiving and christmas this year and consumers generally spend more. i think there's reasons to be optimistic. but also pretty careful about who you buy and who you avoid. >> you've done well this year as we mentioned at the top, 15% gain. so congrats for that. what should people be buying today? >> well, you know, i think it's really all about investing in companies with the strongest brands or the ones competing in the best categories. i'm a firm believe that stocks follow earnings. and i'm really looking for strong brands and good categories because over time, i feel like that should lead to

better earnings growth and assuming price sensitivity, that should lead to better stock performance. i think you need to be careful about taking stock-specific conclusions from the black friday or the thanksgiving weekend. i think things can be very deceiving. you could have a retailer that's been struggling a year and a strong showing. and you could have others that don't really participate in black friday weekend and go to their stores and they look dead. but again, i'm looking for the best brands, the best categories, and pretty optimistic for the holiday season. >> let's name some names. if you want to look at categories, home improvement. you like home depot, you want to look discounters, tjx, department stores, macy's, right? >> sure, if you look at my most recent public holdings, you would see limited brands, tjx, amazon, and you would see home improvement. those are examples of names i've owned that i think at the time

that they had some good potential. >> peter, thanks so much. >> thanks for having me today, scott. >> joe? >> a lot of retail is about momentum. toss out a name i like here, urban outfitters, they have momentum, clearly they've performed this year. i think it's a name you can go after at $38. >> josh? >> i think the consumer's running on fumes this holiday season. i'm going to take the other side. and what i will tell you a lot of what you're seeing is this benefit where oil prices, gas prices have been down enough it makes them feel they can shop a little bit more than what some of the major pessimists would say. but i would not be jumping on a retailer because you think they're going to have a good christmas. >> what does take the other side mean? does that mean you would be out? >> no, this is not a sector devoting hours of times researching individual names. i don't think it's a target-rich environment. not acting well as a whole. there will be a mahandful of winners.

within retail, i do like home depot and i mentioned lowe's on the show last week. >> yes, you did. >> i would stick with that trend, i think it's a multi-year story. a christmas play, not my cup of tea at this point. >> you did make a good call on lowe's we mentioned last week. >> it was interesting, two of those names were internet plays. i think during the whole season, amazon's a big winner this christmas season. >> all right. coming up from a major retailer feeling the heat to a natural foods maker, whose stock isn't looking so healthy? we've got today's top three trades. and later, one company, three analysts, citi initiating coverage on tech giant apple and the team is here with their exclusive in-depth analysis for you when halftime comes back. ♪ [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle,

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saved $480 bucks. you know what that is? yeah. don't say it. so you know what it is, right? yeah, yeah, don't. that's a lot of dough! ♪ [ male announcer ] switch and you could save $480 bucks with state farm. we're about to make the turn on halftime. let's do our top three trades. take a look at the wall. you'll see mcdonald's shares on a downgrade, stephanie. >> yeah, not too surprising after the disappointing comps that they've reported. which decelerated on a one to two-year basis two weeks ago. so that was disappointing. you have more competition coming from the likes of yum and burger

king and wendy's. and they have tough comparisons over the next couple of months. this is not a bad story, a great company with a great balance sheet. i think it's probably going to be dead money until you get through the difficult comparisons over the next couple of months. all right, mcgraw hill going to sell the education arm to apolo. simon? >> yeah, the market likes it. the stock's up a bit in a down tape. wants to focus on a higher margin business, as we know the education business is a low-margin business. i think it's a good deal. take a look at hain and whole foods today. couldn't maintain the growth rate, the stock could lose a third of the value. whole foods, i guess, joe, is lower in sympathy today. >> we're stating the obvious, and yes, it's in sympathy. i think whole foods right now is just trading in a sideways pattern. i think when you look at hain, i think the positive momentum continues, they are an acquisition target. and the name i wouldn't move to the sidelines on.

however, if you look at overall organic trades, look at a name like smart balance, vulnerability and risk to worry about. in those two names. >> tonight on "fast," irwin simon is going to respond to the article. he's going to defend his company in another "fast money" exclusive, again, tonight at 5:00 p.m. only on cnbc. nat gas has been one of the comeback kids in 2012. could it be a sign this trade is finally cooling off? jackie is monitoring all of the activity in the trading pits today. >> good afternoon, scott. well, a steep plunge today down about 4%. part of what's driving that selloff, forecasts for a warmer than expected winter. which could bring a drop in demand for nat gas. so the question now, is the top in for one of the most surprising and hottest trades?

jim, let's start with you, pretty big drop today. what do you see in the future? >> well, okay, the market says it's because it's warmer than expected forecast. okay, that's fine with me. but keep it in perspective. we had a seven-month dramatic rally. these dominos are going to be exacerbated. we only have five weeks left in the year, so there's a chance of that. but i do think this is probably an opportunity to buy it. the fundamental story that's been pushing higher still exists. there was a huge collapse in rig count and only bounced from that small. there's not been a huge inventory build-up right now. to me, seems like the fundamentals are in place for nat gas to go higher. >> are there key levels traders need to be watching here? >> yeah, and a couple points before i give those. and there is no surplus in supplies anymore. in fact, year-on-year, almost exactly where it was. and january and february is where we're going to see the cold weather.

so i'm looking as far as numbers go, about 3.63 on the downside, little support, 3.50 is the big number, but the big number on the upside is 4.04 even at 4.0470. we're going to see 4.20, 4.30 right off the bat. >> sounds like buying opportunity there. now you know what our guys are thinking about nat gas. but what about you? do you think the 2012 high for nat gas isin? vote in our poll and we'll give you our results on our website. and be sure to catch "futures" every tuesday and thursday 1:00 p.m. eastern time. futuresnow.cnbc.com. coming up, ethan allen, the latest company to accelerate the dividend payment following the likes of walmart, are there more plays ahead as the fiscal cliff looms? we have a trade. but when we return, apple has fallen roughly 17% from its peak on september 21st. now city's team of analyst will

join us exclusively to tell us the stock's next stop. more "halftime's" on the way. can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office. but i'm still stubbed up.

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we have some breaking news now. the stock is up 11% today. >> that's right, scott. and i've just learned that despite reports that the market making business is on the block, it is not, in fact. the whole company is. fielding offers from at least two of its competitors to possibly buy it. and now these investors get'co and virtue to buy it outright and merge their businesses into it, thus going public themselves. a scenario like that would expand getco and virtues' footprint dramatically. while the exact terms of a potential deal aren't yet clear, people familiar with the matter told me to think about it as a $600 million to $700 million proposition. given friday's stock price of about $2.50, before word of a possible deal shot shares way up today, as you mentioned, and with a premium of let's say 30

or 40% put on top. the future of current knight chief tom joyce isn't yet clear. joyce's contract is up at the end of the year. and getco or virtue would be unlikely to keep him on to run the combined company if it came to that. however, that's very much in question, i'm told by someone else involved. and new owners might want to keep him involved in the mix in a senior role of some sort. and no guarantee that any deal will actually happen, scott. all yet another twist on what's been a very tough year for the jersey city market maker which lost $460 million to a technology snafu in august and has been trying to regroup ever since. >> well, kate, and stay with us, your reporting is moving the stock. i don't think you have a monitor there where you may be able to see the exact reaction. but knight capital shares shooting higher again on your reporting, kate, that the whole company may, in fact, be up for sale. there's still a regulatory cloud, though, that hangs overnight, right, kate?

>> that's right. absolutely. >> that could complicate matters in trying to move the entire company. >> two things to remember. one is absolutely the sec is looking into this. and both trading and markets as well as the enforcement unit. what happened there was that a technology snafu caused knight to buy a bunch of -- go short and long a number of positions on august 1st that it didn't want. it managed to sort of bail out of some of those and sell the rest of the book overnight. it got new financing through others through a convert sale. they managed to kind of salvage the situation before it took them under, but the sec has been investigating that. now, in some ways that was a very routine i.t. mistake from what i'm told. and so i don't think it's your traditional dramatic sec enforcement case, but at the same time, a lot of money was lost. there are rules that need to be followed. that's going to be something that an acquirer would have to deal with. at the same time, i don't get the sense that will stop a deal from going forward. >> yeah, josh, so if the company

apparently, you know, according to kate in her reporting the empire entire thing is on the block. what do you do with a stock on a day it's up 19% on this news? >> it's tough, no arbitrage situation. the potential buyer is not a public company. in theory getco or the other one. i think, scott, the key for most investors here. this stuff matters. the company that's going to buy this is becoming one of the biggest authorized participants. you can't do that without a company like knight who physically creates these baskets of securities and makes the process so seamless. we should care about who ends up in control of this. it absolutely will affect the way the etf thing works going forward because they're very instrumental here. >> kate, can you put into any perspective what a guy like tom joyce means on the street? what his name means on the street these days? he is one of the most respected guys on wall street, you know, despite the snafu and some of the other things. >> i would confirm that, scott. i mean reputationally, he's very

well-liked. he's been running knight since 2002, he's got a decade-long track record here. and what's stunning about what happened in august, this snafu is just kind of the sort of thing that happens even with the best of intentions. obviously they probably needed to have better risk management on the i.t. side. but, you know, tom is very well-liked. and he came up with a private sector solution to this whole thing and worked with other parties and willing to be flexible. i think there's a lot of good will around tom joyce. if he were not to survive as chairman and ceo with a newly restructured company, i'm told that would not have anything to do with his reputation or skill set. it's more a sense of -- in these m & a situations, there's a bias sometimes toward new management. but like i said, that's not at all clear and it's possible he'll continue on. one other quick point to make, the initial stories on this said that the market making unit would be sold. that doesn't make a wheel lot of sense because that's their core

business. that's why it makes sense to think of this more as an entire company. >> and a big growth business. it's the part that's growing too. certainly from a revenue standpoint it is. >> they have a number of other valuable assets, but this is by far the heart and soul of what they do, scott. >> right. kate, appreciate it very much. you can certainly see the reaction in your reporting in the stock today of knight capital group. meantime, apple may be the most valuable company on the planet and now it's added another milestone of sorts becoming at least by our calculations the first company to have three analysts from one firm covering it. that's what citi's decided to do. and we've got all of them here to talk to us exclusive by about their unprecedented move. jim covers hardware, walter watches software, and glen follows semis. gentlemen, welcome, good to have you all with us. glen, you're the lead guy from at least what i can tell from the note today. why does it take three guys to cover apple?

>> hearing how many analysts does it screw in a lightbulb comments today. it's not that. the benefit of it is we have inputs from guys who cover hardware, software, myself covering semis. and remember also we've got a team over in asia also giving its input. you think about how broad a company apple is, having insight in all of these areas really -- we really think will help us provide unique insight into the company. >> jim, can you give us an idea of how the three of you got together with your research and came up with a price target here of $675? certainly looks lofty now considering where the stock is trading. however, it's well below the street's average, which, i think at the top is, you know, over $1,100. >> well, this actually is a true team approach to covering apple. and in doing so, the $675-target price does represent an attractive 20% upside. yes, the stock has pulled back a lot, but we think 20% upside is enough to warrant a buy

recommendation on apple shares. >> walter, the risks that investors have to, you know, study these days seem to be growing with apple. what's the real story? what's happening with the company? >> sure. i mean, we think this is a race between a company who is pretty dominant, built an eco system that rivals microsoft, the android eco system that google's built. and we think it's a foot race between apple maintaining that lead which we argue they will and between competition, for example, coming up from the low end and microsoft's new entry into the market. we think that's the main risk this is an eco system battle. and well argue apple will maintain that lead. >> gentlemen, let me throw a curve ball at you. what's that going to be here in the near term? >> i'll take it. you know, we think not a lot of unique things here. we assume apple, you know, obviously has a dividend. we'll consistently increase that dividend. i don't think our view is unique from the street. we're not expecting any kind of

transformative acquisitions. certainly nothing to point to at this point. >> it's josh brown, i'm not sure which of you is covering supply chain. there's been this persistent chatter that at a certain point apple's going to try to do its own semis and not use some from the likes of qualcomm. is that something that investors in general should think about over the reality of the near term? or is that just merely chatter? >> that's wrong. a couple things to think about. they do their own applications processor, and they've been doing that for a long time. what qualcomm provides is a base band architecture, basically the radio for the phone. that is not something apple's going to have an easy time replicating. i can see them integrating more closely. but in terms of making their own, i think it's a very unlikely situation. >> stephanie link? >> can you speak to the gross margin concerns? i think that is one of the res whck has pulled back. and i noticed that you guys have a lower than consensus

expectation for gross margin. could you speak to that, please? >> it's interesting. if you look at a couple of things one is the time in between new product launches for apple over the years. that's gone from over 380 days to 125. and when you do that in the high volumes that apple has, execution gets tougher. yield issues show up. and we see that in the fourth quarter numbers, in the gross margins. on top of that, we think that the growth is more likely to come from tablets versus phones. and as tablets grow and particularly the ipad mini, that's a negative impact to margin. we both have execution issues as well as mix issues impacting gross margin. >> what do you think that does for the consensus is expecting that now, so how does the stock move materially higher if the mix shift is going to continue to change? >> ultimately, the reason the stock moves high is because it's pulled back so much. we did an analysis that looks at other companies facing similar patterns to apple. and apple hit the valuations of those companies and when it

does, it has a tendency to rally. we think near term numbers look stable. we're not looking for any kind of near term miss. our concerns are more 2013, 2014 kind of issues. >> pleasure talking to you. i'm sure we'll be speaking to all three of you many times in the near future. >> thanks. >> simon baker, what do you do with apple here? >> well, you know, i like the approach on apple right off the bat there. but what you do with apple right here, i think you've got to buy it in here. i think on the semiconductor space, i was kind of curious, what was the margin compression on it? i think they'll get a better insight. i'll be curious what their research report says on that. >> you're saying -- you sort of buried that. you'd buy apple at $586? >> absolutely, yeah. gaming the fiscal cliff as another company accelerates the dividend payment, are there more special dividends ahead? and from an energy company to a footwear maker. we're tracking some of the day's

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coming up on "power lunch," a realtime look at what shoppers are searching for right now on this cyber monday. and how much the day really matters to the online retailers. new pressure on washington to solve the fiscal cliff. this time from state attorneys general. see why they are so concerned about the still fragile recovery in housing. and how big a deal is it that notre dame is back on top in college football? we'll debate it today on "power lunch." and we've got a couple of people with decided opinions on that. now back to scott and more "fast half." >> including a former player, i

think, there, tyler. we'll look forward to hearing from you guys at the top of the hour. let's hit the biggest pops and drops. before we do that, let's take a look at apple. it is popping. highs up nearly 3%. you heard from the three gentlemen from citi who have assumed coverage of apple with a buy rating of $675 price target and apple has gone to the highs of the day, the nasdaq 100 has gone positive, as well. a fractional move, but spent much of the day negative is now positive. let's do the rest of our pops and drops. boston scientific, josh, is popping. >> yeah, a hated name. it's a small pop today because one of their chief competitors' products, something from st. jude is being pulled off the market. this is not a catalyst to buy the stock. but if you want to own it for this pop, i think your downside is limited, $5 seems to be solid support. >> simon, deckers is popping 4%. >> deckers who own uggs, that's one of josh's favorite footwear. it's still one of the largest u.s. and cheapest footwear companies over $1 billion.

and its speculation is it's going to be bought out. it's up on m&a activity today. >> what's going on with excelon. >> well, there's speculation they're going to be cutting by 30% to 50%. today upgrades exxon-mobil. the 32% decline in the shares reflects that news. i think you wait until they cut the dividend to be buying stock. >> btu. peabody was a player in mongolia to pe tensionally develop one of the largest coal fields there. looks like mongolia's going to push that selection out from the end of this year to 2013. coal names rallied on a potential for romney to win. i don't likele coal names until the chinese economy comes around. is there drop for the state of florida. a woman was arrested after taking a joyride on the back of a manatee. the woman was unaware of the state law forbidding any person intentionally disturbing a manatee. turned herself in yesterday. we'd like to make it clear, the manatee did escape unscathed, thanks goodness, and has yet to press any charges. >> which is the manatee?

i'm just asking. >> don't write any letters, folks. >> i think the manatee has the hat. coming up -- coming up -- our traders are fast but they're not always right. simon baker's in the hot seat as he tries to make a good trade or a trade gone bad go right. plus, five names, one fund manager says you need to short right now. you might be surprised who's on his list. he's naming names next.

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implts thoug i think you go long before the earnings. it's all about mobile. more people using more and more devices. google's right in the middle of the surge. it is just positive all the way around. i think it's take a little bit of breather but go long google into earnings tonight. >> google's down 12%, simon, since you made that call. tech has obviously come under a little bit of trouble. apple's pulled back, google has followed suit. what do you do now? >> well, i think you buy it here. really the stock sold off because of concern about deceleration of the revenue on the site because of the move to mobile. we don't think it is a problem. i think you buy the stock. trading at 16 times earning, growing at 15%, own it. ranger equity bear etf is a

nau fund that shorts individual stocks. which names in that space should we short? >> tiffany's, coach and fossil. >> why tiffany, coach, focusing on high end? >> we feel like all of them have inventory problems, all of them are going to have margin compression over the next several quarters. >> as josh was pointing out, fossil's already had a tough year. right? >> they have. we think they'll have a lot more. they got slammed down to about $78 on a quarter. they bounced back up to $86. you've got a cfo out the door. the spring and founder left in 2010. >> speaking of people out the door, green mountain is going to have a new ceo. the company's going to come out with earnings, some big and loud voices are short that name on the street, including you. >> we are. we continue to feel like there's another leg to drop and basically a good ceo helps but in a name like hewlett-packard, meg whitman can't help a dying situation and i think this is a

similar situation. >> i'm just curious from a practitioner's standpoint, is there a level of a short interest in a stock where even if you really knew it was a deteriorating story you would stay away from because of the risk of a squeeze where you end up being right but wrong in terms of of the investment. what do you look at when you see a high short interest in a stock like green mountain? >> if you have high short interest, you better have serious conviction. this is one of our high-conviction names. traditionally we don't really touch a name over 8%, 10% short. >> that's when it gets really dangerous. >> that's what we think. >> brad, appreciate you coming in. again final trades just after the break. from local communities to local businesses. the potential of yelp unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's potential. to a currency market for everyone.

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